archsk8r

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 04:17PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 3% 3%
Latvia 1% 2%
Lithuania 2% 3%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 05:19PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:27PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 3%
No 96% 97%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 02:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 11% 14%
No 89% 86%
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