Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 04:17PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 04:17PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 05:19PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 05:19PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 98% | 95% | +3% | -1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:27PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 08:27PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 97% | -1% | +0% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 02:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 17, 2025 02:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 14% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 89% | 86% | +3% | +0% |