Dropping slightly due to passage of time, this looks pretty unlikely
-0.028729
Relative Brier Score
286
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 26 | 318 | 286 | 1776 |
| Comments | 13 | 26 | 321 | 304 | 720 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 19 | 61 | 48 | 254 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 87 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still a year to go
Files
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Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(-10%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
4%
(0%)
61-90 days
24%
(+10%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Shifting a bit in the event that the ceasefire/peace deal terms are favorable to Russia, increasing their incentive to stick to the deal
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the deal turns out to not favor Russia, previous reasoning stands
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast. I haven't seen anything in the past ~month to update otherwise
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Long time horizon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(+1%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
98%
(-1%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Slight adjustment to align with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is precedent for this so it could happen in this timeframe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming at 1%, which is right around the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would be a significant provocation so very unlikely
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Heard this [1] on NPR today (although when I heard it live I think there was additional info from their reporter on the ground), the peace deal sounds dead, they said that the Ukrainians were basically never even considering it. Since this Q needs bilateral agreement I'm decreasing to just 1% left for the last ~month of the year
[1] https://www.npr.org/2025/12/03/nx-s1-5628419/u-s-russia-hold-hourslong-peace-talks-to-discuss-deal-to-end-ukraine-war
Why might you be wrong?
There still might be a ceasefire of some kind, that sounds more likely than the peace deal but still very unlikely. With Trump's support, Putin may still get his way