Current trend seems to be pretty strongly in the opposite direction, and the timeline now is probably too short anyway
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Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 17 | 24 | 311 | 24 | 1825 |
| Comments | 17 | 24 | 329 | 24 | 769 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 15 | 55 | 15 | 262 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 90 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Small possibility of Gaza or Venezuela or similar
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
97%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
0
9%
1
1%
2 or more
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the background info, this does not seem very likely, although there was the one in 2024 and climate change is probably making them more intense. There are only a few forecasts so far, but I'm still sticking in the general vicinity of the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We're pretty far out so there aren't any real forecasts yet for this summer, will update as we get closer
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast. I am far enough below the crowd I don't want to go any lower
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
Yes
82%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going approximately with the crowd here, I think there is a lot of uncertainty in being able to figure out if an attack had a substantial AI component. The resolution criteria are also not super precise
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know a ton about cybersecurity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
13%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing due to passage of time, 5 months left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still 5 months to go, but this is unlikely to be some kind of surprise announcement
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There aren't really currently any incentives for any of these countries to do this (in fact the opposite), so I don't see this happening. This doesn't really seem to be a thing China or Russia does. The US and EU want to maintain good relations with these countries.
Short time horizon as well
Why might you be wrong?
Still 5 months to go and you never really know what Trump is gonna do