Slight adjustment based on the crowd
-0.172163
Relative Brier Score
390
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 25 | 315 | 293 | 1783 |
| Comments | 7 | 25 | 328 | 311 | 727 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 19 | 59 | 48 | 254 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 88 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(-1%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump signed the state preemption EO last night... If I could go negative on this one, I would
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Even less likely given the EO from today
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Really don't think this is going to happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Yes
97%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing to be a bit closer to the crowd, Trump admin seems pretty gung-ho on AI (a la the executive order from today)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still a pretty short timeline for regulatory approval. Exactly how things work over at the FDA is outside my area of expertise
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Long enough time horizon that I'm staying at 1%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not completely outside the realm of possibility that the world economy tanks and this sort of thing happens
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Heard this [1] on NPR today (although when I heard it live I think there was additional info from their reporter on the ground), the peace deal sounds dead, they said that the Ukrainians were basically never even considering it. Since this Q needs bilateral agreement I'm decreasing to just 1% left for the last ~month of the year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There still might be a ceasefire of some kind, that sounds more likely than the peace deal but still very unlikely. With Trump's support, Putin may still get his way
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping slightly due to passage of time, this looks pretty unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still a year to go
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, I'm aligned w/ the crowd
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming previous forecast