RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	-0.000109
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.000748
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	-0.001157
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.004997
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?	-0.005932
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.000077
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?	-0.005398
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	-0.000742
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?	-0.004
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC	How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?	-0.006219
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025?	-0.012159
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres?	-0.008363
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	0.004243
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	0.003408
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	-0.000113
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?	-0.001016
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	-0.010724
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	-0.001703
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0

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