How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?

Started Jun 09, 2025 08:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Seasons

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), there were 641 political violence events (i.e., battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians, excessive force against protesters, and mob violence) in May 2025, compared to 705 in April and 650 in March. Below is a chart showing the number of incidents of political violence in Mexico each month from June 2024 through May 2025: 



ACLED has recorded the following counts of political violence events in the month of August:
  • Aug 2020: 596
  • Aug 2021: 536
  • Aug 2022: 622
  • Aug 2023: 641
  • Aug 2024: 629 
Resolution Criteria: 
This question will be resolved using ACLED's Data Explorer. To see the total number of political violence incidents in a given time period:
  • Option 1: Select “Event Counts” for the metric you are interested in.
  • Option 2: Select “Political Violence” for the event categories/types.
  • Option 3: Select “Custom Date Range” for and select the date range you want to see. For this question, the date range for resolution will be “2025-08-01 to 2025-08-31”.
  • Option 5: Select “Mexico” as the country of interest.
  • Option 10 (Optional): Select “Yes” to see the event counts grouped by time period (weeks, months, or years, depending on your date range).
  • Press “Run Calculations” and the total event count will be in a table on the right.

Question clarification
Issued on 06/25/25 04:30pm
At the time the question launched, ACLED reported 650 political violence events for May 2025, but their database now shows 677 events for the same period. This reflects ACLED’s standard database update cycle, which occurs weekly and includes revisions with a 1-2 week lag. To ensure accurate resolution using the most complete data available, we will wait two weeks after the August 2025 period ends before resolving this question.
Resolution Notes

ACLED reported that there were 664 political violence events in Mexico in August 2025.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 600 1%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive 6%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive 44%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive 35%
More than or equal to 690 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61
Number of Forecasts 294
Average for questions older than 6 months: 233
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.132023
4.
-0.084543
5.
-0.075236

Consensus Trend

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