How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?
Started
Jun 09, 2025 08:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
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According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), there were 641 political violence events (i.e., battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians, excessive force against protesters, and mob violence) in May 2025, compared to 705 in April and 650 in March. Below is a chart showing the number of incidents of political violence in Mexico each month from June 2024 through May 2025:

ACLED has recorded the following counts of political violence events in the month of August:
- Aug 2020: 596
- Aug 2021: 536
- Aug 2022: 622
- Aug 2023: 641
- Aug 2024: 629
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using ACLED's Data Explorer. To see the total number of political violence incidents in a given time period:
- Option 1: Select “Event Counts” for the metric you are interested in.
- Option 2: Select “Political Violence” for the event categories/types.
- Option 3: Select “Custom Date Range” for and select the date range you want to see. For this question, the date range for resolution will be “2025-08-01 to 2025-08-31”.
- Option 5: Select “Mexico” as the country of interest.
- Option 10 (Optional): Select “Yes” to see the event counts grouped by time period (weeks, months, or years, depending on your date range).
- Press “Run Calculations” and the total event count will be in a table on the right.
Question clarification
Issued on 06/25/25 04:30pm
At the time the question launched, ACLED reported 650 political violence events for May 2025, but their database now shows 677 events for the same period. This reflects ACLED’s standard database update cycle, which occurs weekly and includes revisions with a 1-2 week lag. To ensure accurate resolution using the most complete data available, we will wait two weeks after the August 2025 period ends before resolving this question.
At the time the question launched, ACLED reported 650 political violence events for May 2025, but their database now shows 677 events for the same period. This reflects ACLED’s standard database update cycle, which occurs weekly and includes revisions with a 1-2 week lag. To ensure accurate resolution using the most complete data available, we will wait two weeks after the August 2025 period ends before resolving this question.
Resolution Notes
ACLED reported that there were 664 political violence events in Mexico in August 2025.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 600 | 1% | |
| Between 600 and 629, inclusive | 6% | |
| Between 630 and 659, inclusive | 44% | |
| Between 660 and 689, inclusive | 35% | |
| More than or equal to 690 | 14% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 108 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 294 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |