ndhibbler

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.050086
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? 0.114317
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025? 0.071573
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.114751
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.033609
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.026114
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.018539
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.067398
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) 0.005148
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