I think they are moving towards this
-0.309583
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Jun 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia seems resistant and may drag it on
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think this is very unlikely to happen in such a short amount of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is entirely possible
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 23, 2025 11:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
Yes
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
78%
No
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think I may be right because China is usually fast in advancing technology that is very competitve
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because I do not know much about China's processes right now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
31%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
60%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think it is unlikely as they haven't been making any big moves recently
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because things can change quickly