RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	0.021093
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	0.257202
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.031891
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	0.338154
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	0.956507
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC	Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?	0.556179
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025)	0.011421
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)	0.299168
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.22477
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.24731
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.555408
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.006172
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	0.651177
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.235189
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	0.11171
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.022182
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.266978
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.481752
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.031379
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	1.167855

gbjurado

About: