RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	7%	+43%	-1%
No	50%	93%	-43%	+1%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 01:56AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	12%	+68%	+8%
No	20%	88%	-68%	-8%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	36%	+4%	-5%
No	60%	64%	-4%	+5%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:35AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	45%	+5%	-1%
No	50%	55%	-5%	+1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:19AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	2%	+53%	-3%
No	45%	98%	-53%	+3%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:20AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	50%	+20%	-30%
No	30%	50%	-20%	+30%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:18PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	-8%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+8%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 04:44AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	29%	+1%	-5%
No	70%	71%	-1%	+5%

Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 04:45AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	26%	+4%	-4%
No	70%	74%	-4%	+4%

gbjurado

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