RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	7%	+43%	+0%
No	50%	93%	-43%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 01:46PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	0%	67%	-67%	+4%
30 days	0%	6%	-6%	-4%
31-60 days	0%	6%	-6%	-2%
61-90 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
91 days or more	100%	16%	+84%	+3%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 01:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	1%	+29%	-2%
No	70%	99%	-29%	+2%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 01:56AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	10%	+70%	+6%
No	20%	90%	-70%	-6%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:34AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	36%	+4%	-5%
No	60%	64%	-4%	+5%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:35AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	47%	+3%	+0%
No	50%	53%	-3%	+0%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:19AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	2%	+53%	-3%
No	45%	98%	-53%	+3%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:20AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	57%	+13%	-23%
No	30%	43%	-13%	+23%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	+1%
No	99%	96%	+3%	-1%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	-5%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+5%

gbjurado

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