Confirmed previous forecast
0.305218
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
78%
(0%)
Estonia
8%
(0%)
Latvia
14%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
Just a reminder that here your 3 numbers do not need to sum up to 100% (these are supposed to be independent events)...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Yes
83%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Yes
83%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Because due to the last pandemic they have a baseline to compare all kinds of different diseases and their upcoming vaccines to fight it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Other internal issues or factors may arise
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
78%
(-2%)
Estonia
8%
(+1%)
Latvia
14%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Because they left the Russian power grid
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They will get assistance from other EU countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Estonia
7%
(0%)
Latvia
13%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
(0%)
Yes
12%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Yes because there’s far more advancements in science and astronomy and the use of public data through applications such as Zooniverse
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some data could be corrupt or inaccurate so that would delay things
Files
