Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000013
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The european nations are unwilling to fight for Ukraine with their own forces, as that would invite a larger conflict.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The only way that would hapen is if it's proven that Russian forces have started to invade other European nations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is now way they will replace him so fast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Only if he's assassinated.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 11:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024
90%
No
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024
After Israel actions against Yemen. Hezbollah is unlikely to join the conflict.
Files
Just to make sure I understand this, this is because of Hezbollah fearing the same treatment as Yemen got?
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster of the Month - Jan 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
Why do you think you're right?
There is no way that the EU will buy gas, while Putin is increasing hostility again the west.
Why might you be wrong?
Not even sure under what condtest this could happen