market sentiment seems negative, so seems unlikely it will carry today. Might rally over summer, but will be too late then.
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1
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New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-80%)
Yes
90%
(+80%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Markets do all sorts of things often.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+5%)
Yes
10%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating my prediction based on Nvidia currently being #1 market cap company by about 10 G$ difference to MSFT.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Market is fickle and can turn, there are still 2 days to go.
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Apologies - deleting mine as well, my speculation added nothing to the discussion. Thank you both
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Taiwan electronic exports have shot to the moon in April, btw. 18.8 G$, all time high.
Naive model would venture a guess NVDA revenue to be over 49 G$, earnings per share over 1.15$, both way over analyst expectations. I guess today TSMC will also publish monthly revenue, which will either confirm or falsify this.
of course market mood is what market mood is, who knows of anything.
Naive model would venture a guess NVDA revenue to be over 49 G$, earnings per share over 1.15$, both way over analyst expectations. I guess today TSMC will also publish monthly revenue, which will either confirm or falsify this.
of course market mood is what market mood is, who knows of anything.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+25%)
Yes
15%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
it appears Nvidia will 1) continue on the linear +4G$ q/q revenue trend and 2) its products will be exempted from US tariffs per https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55 and https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/about-nvidia/company-policies/export-regulations/
Therefore its revenues per Taiwan monthly export data ( https://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/webMain.aspx?sys=220&ym=11303&ymt=11403&kind=21&type=1&funid=e8121&cycle=1&outmode=0&compmode=00&ratenm=Annual%20growth%20rate&outkind=1&fld0=1&cod034=1&rdm=R68161 ) and TSMC monthly revenue ( https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2025 ) trends should conservatively be at least +4 G$ q/q arriving to at least 44 G$ in this quarter. In naive linear model its share price should then end up to 180$ or around, but likely at least to 160$. Currently share price is 110$
But this is no investment advice and I may be hugely mistaken.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump admin has show clear capability to have different new opinions suddenly. Also Meta and Microsoft could decide they do not need over 100 G$ Nvidia GPUs in 2025.
Also other companies such as Apple will benefit from tariff exemption.
Also markets are unpredictable and fickle.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
per the fundaments such as p/e, it likely should be 180$ by summer, after net quarter results, but main source of error is that markets are not very consistent. My presumption is that data center GPU sales continue their about linear growth rate of +4 G$ per quarter.
But indeed a lot of things can happen, China could invade Taiwan and US foreign policy currently causes a lot of things to be unlike one would have predicted them to be half a year ago etc.
But basically Nvidia is still selling all GPUs it can get fabbed, at about price it sets. I am unsure why they keep their profit ratio this low, but I presume they know better how much market can bear.
On fundament side it would cease to be true if GPU demand indeed dropped, but so far it has not, and it seems the big players still have the same intent of spending easily 200 G$ on GPUs in 2025, Meta has published aim of 66 G$ and Microsoft 100 G$. Granted some part of those budgets go to buildings etc, but there are also plenty of other parties that want to buy. It seems that in normal situation all GPUs indeed will continue to get sold.
But yeah, who knows. Maybe it will happen later or never? There have been plenty of surprises recently.
I feel I do not have good insight how things will happen re my score in either case but direction, so I have hard time calibrating on how to game my score bet to be what I want it to be, and I am already on the hook for track record, so I mainly try to keep my prediction stable so that in case of win I don't miss out the score I have already bet.
But indeed a lot of things can happen, China could invade Taiwan and US foreign policy currently causes a lot of things to be unlike one would have predicted them to be half a year ago etc.
But basically Nvidia is still selling all GPUs it can get fabbed, at about price it sets. I am unsure why they keep their profit ratio this low, but I presume they know better how much market can bear.
On fundament side it would cease to be true if GPU demand indeed dropped, but so far it has not, and it seems the big players still have the same intent of spending easily 200 G$ on GPUs in 2025, Meta has published aim of 66 G$ and Microsoft 100 G$. Granted some part of those budgets go to buildings etc, but there are also plenty of other parties that want to buy. It seems that in normal situation all GPUs indeed will continue to get sold.
But yeah, who knows. Maybe it will happen later or never? There have been plenty of surprises recently.
I feel I do not have good insight how things will happen re my score in either case but direction, so I have hard time calibrating on how to game my score bet to be what I want it to be, and I am already on the hook for track record, so I mainly try to keep my prediction stable so that in case of win I don't miss out the score I have already bet.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
it seems unlikely that there will be ceasefire and political will to deploy the troops.
Why might you be wrong?
there could come sudden ceasefire.