it seems unlikely that there will be ceasefire and political will to deploy the troops.
2.913026
Relative Brier Score
34
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there could come sudden ceasefire.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-80%)
Yes
90%
(+80%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
market sentiment seems negative, so seems unlikely it will carry today. Might rally over summer, but will be too late then.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Markets do all sorts of things often.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+5%)
Yes
10%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating my prediction based on Nvidia currently being #1 market cap company by about 10 G$ difference to MSFT.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Market is fickle and can turn, there are still 2 days to go.
Files
Apologies - deleting mine as well, my speculation added nothing to the discussion. Thank you both
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Taiwan electronic exports have shot to the moon in April, btw. 18.8 G$, all time high.
Naive model would venture a guess NVDA revenue to be over 49 G$, earnings per share over 1.15$, both way over analyst expectations. I guess today TSMC will also publish monthly revenue, which will either confirm or falsify this.
of course market mood is what market mood is, who knows of anything.
Naive model would venture a guess NVDA revenue to be over 49 G$, earnings per share over 1.15$, both way over analyst expectations. I guess today TSMC will also publish monthly revenue, which will either confirm or falsify this.
of course market mood is what market mood is, who knows of anything.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Year is ending
Why might you be wrong?
Trump has increased world volatility