Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000008
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2025 05:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Quick last minute prediction: there is no indication of a deal being made, so no such thing will materialize in the next two days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Shadow negotiations and a surprising warming up of relationships.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 30, 2025 05:26AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Upping to probability to zero due to points maxing. Seems that no such maneuvers are being prepared.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump has made global politics volatile, which might incur fast developments.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+5%)
Yes
85%
(-5%)
No
NVIDIA has already fallen to be the third most valuable company behind Apple and Microsoft and operates in a highly competitive market. It is unlikely that they return to the top and would continue to hold it, especially given that there are likely no great innovations on their product sector on the immediate horizon.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2024 02:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
99%
(+2%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
This is looking increasingly unlikely.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The main powers with significant capabilities for anti-satellite operations against US and allies are Russia and China. Russia has thus avoided direct strikes against NATO, and provided no dramatic changes happen on the Ukraine front, will likely avoid such overt measures in the future as well.
China does not seem to be preparing for imminent military action and is likely not to start such motions during the next year. Hence, the value of anti-satellite strikes is diminished compared to the political cost.
Why might you be wrong?
Should China start rapid preparation for a Taiwan invasion, I could see anti-satellite strikes as a part of that process. Even then, it is unlikely that China is willing to destroy enough US spy satellites as to completely obscure their troop movements. Hence, they would not gain much with such overt aggression.
The current US president does also represent significantly increased variance in global politics. It is not impossible that due to Trump's actions relations with China rapidly cool to a point where direct military action of limited scope is on the table.