Confirmed previous forecast
0.07714
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(-10%)
Yes
10%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Easier access to the tools, particularly enabled by AI, and less regulation in the long tail of bioengineering
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Regulation might catch up
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2025 12:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 27, 2025 to Feb 27, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Aug 27, 2025 to Feb 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 29, 2025 10:20AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
80%
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
China is focussed elsewhere (tarrifs) at the moment, and it's winning that battle.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The situation can change and China will need to show it can save save national pride.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
