Historical rate is quite low, divided by number of days left is very low. Also indications of China-India rapprochement.
-0.000909
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Seems likely to me since a desire to be comprehensive means that it should receive at least a passing mention. Several notable scientists have mentioned this topic
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Haven't looked closely into exactly which documents are included or excluded. If my intuition on how much is produced is wrong then it could be much lower.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2025 05:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 25, 2025 09:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 25, 2025 to Jan 25, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Jul 25, 2025 to Jan 25, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Prior reasoning adjusted for time remaining
Why might you be wrong?
Unknown unknowns