Decreasing with passage of time and one month to go…
-0.34835
Relative Brier Score
97
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 11 | 150 | 132 | 1062 |
| Comments | 4 | 9 | 108 | 103 | 544 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 274 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Ukraine war is halted, maybe Russian efforts will be focused elsewhere but that is also unlikely to be before the end of the year in my mind…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(+10%)
Less than $350 million
35%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
15%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
5%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing based on the way this is calculated and the source not including funding I originally expected it to
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe the types of funding included in the source will change…
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+15%)
Less than 30 days
1%
(-4%)
30 days
1%
(-4%)
31-60 days
1%
(-4%)
61-90 days
32%
(-3%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Going higher in the less than 30 days due to the fact that there has been so much back and forth so even if they were to agree on something I could see it immediately being broken. However, if it does last or the agreement is largely in Russia’s favor I could also see it not being broken at all (at least a few years until Russia decides to try and expand territory again).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It’s also possible that they are going back and forth so much because it’s all talk so far and if they come to agreement it will mean both sides are serious…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(-9%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on @ctsats rationale - the majority of numbers are in and it would take a huge unexpected event to deviate enough
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Don’t know much about the source of data and how it changes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
7%
(-12%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
93%
(+18%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating significantly given passage of time. Keeping it at 7% for this year given active talks between US/Ukraine/Russia but my sense is it won’t happen soon (also based on potential for end of war mentioned many times in the past and then not happening).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If it does happen, I could see it being somewhat sudden… but there is likely to be a lot of back and forth yet
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing significantly with this coming to a close in a month. I haven’t heard anything indicating this would happen or is in the works.
Why might you be wrong?
There may be a political push for more action before the end of year but with the shutdown ended temporarily it seems likely any other actions will be next year.