China warfare on Taiwan
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Don't want to threaten US
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Yes
26%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Likely a Gulf alliance
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Dependent on US
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
Yes
52%
No
Why do you think you're right?
adsg
Files
Why might you be wrong?
agd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(+23%)
Yes
31%
(-23%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
asdg
Files
Why might you be wrong?
asdg
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(+72%)
Yes
16%
(-72%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
asf
Files
Why might you be wrong?
asdf
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 10:52AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2025 to Mar 1, 2027
10%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2025 to Mar 1, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
Yes
54%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Because
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Threat to national sovereignty
Why might you be wrong?
Would benefit economically