Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Dec 29, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 7% | +8% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 93% | -8% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Dec 29, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 16% | +9% | -1% |
| No | 75% | 84% | -9% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Dec 29, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |