Confirmed previous forecast
0.322465
Relative Brier Score
154
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 154 | 154 | 154 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-19%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Its late in the year and no action appears imminent
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Much could be happening behind the scenes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
8%
(0%)
30 days
10%
(0%)
31-60 days
9%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2025 08:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Estonia
0%
(-1%)
Latvia
0%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is not in a position to do this at a time when it is struggling with its war in Ukraine
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A desperate act by Putin acting with an understanding that the US will not support these countries through the NATO treaty
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2025 08:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2025 08:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files