Confirmed previous forecast
0.306839
Relative Brier Score
164
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 10 | 156 | 164 | 164 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 77 | 85 | 85 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Economic Debt,
Russian Disinformation,
Africa,
East Asia Security,
Cybersecurity
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to reduced time table
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Probably not wrong given the time remaining
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
8%
(0%)
30 days
10%
(0%)
31-60 days
9%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
100%
(+2%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating given passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NK doesn't follow logical patterns of behavior
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating as window closes
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China would see an opportunity before Taiwan has new weapons from the US. Also as the US seeks to create spheres of influence it is becoming doubtful it would intervene
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
