There are strong strategic and political motivations for North Korea to go forward with a test. Technically, the test site at Punggye-ri is reportedly prepared, with at least one tunnel (Tunnel 3) deemed ready. A test could support Kim Jong-un’s push to showcase military modernization—especially following the announcement of a nuclear-capable warship—and reinforce the message of a nuclear-armed navy. It would also serve as a show of strength ahead of political milestones, including elections in the U.S. and South Korea. Additionally, North Korea’s strengthening relationship with Russia may give it confidence to act without fear of serious UN sanctions, as Moscow could shield it diplomatically.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 30, 2025 02:12AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
60%
No
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Despite the apparent readiness, there are notable constraints. Recent satellite imagery has not revealed the typical signs of imminent testing, such as tunnel cabling or movement of heavy monitoring equipment. In fact, heavy rainfall in 2024 damaged critical access infrastructure near the Punggye-ri site, which may delay or complicate preparations. Additionally, China—North Korea’s largest trade partner—remains firmly opposed to further nuclear testing and could reduce support if Pyongyang provokes regional instability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine not present in key talks:
The recent Saudi-hosted meeting between U.S. and Russian officials excluded Ukraine, highlighting a disconnect in diplomacy. Without Ukraine’s direct involvement, a ceasefire agreement is unlikely to be legitimate or accepted by Kyiv.
Security guarantees are still vague:
U.S.-Ukraine negotiations over mineral resource deals and potential security guarantees are ongoing, but unclear. A lack of concrete guarantees may delay Ukraine's willingness to enter any agreement.
Ukraine's official stance remains firm:
Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, continues to reject any ceasefire that legitimizes Russian territorial gains, especially without a full Russian withdrawal.
Localized fighting persists with no nationwide freeze:
Even if isolated “pauses” occur (e.g., due to fatigue or diplomacy), the requirement in your resolution — a full ceasefire over the entire conflict zone — sets a high bar. That threshold has not been met in prior months of diplomacy.
Russia may not benefit from freezing the conflict right now:
Putin may seek continued pressure on Ukraine through attrition, hoping for weakening Western support or changes in U.S. policy after the 2024 election.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Growing public support in Ukraine for negotiations:
A sharp increase in Ukrainians willing to accept a negotiated end, including territorial concessions, may pressure Ukrainian leaders to shift their position — especially if Western aid becomes more conditional.
Increased backchannel diplomacy:
The Saudi meeting shows the U.S. and Russia are at least talking. If quiet diplomacy progresses and Ukraine is eventually brought in, a deal could rapidly materialize in late 2025.
Economic and political fatigue on both sides:
Russia faces continued sanctions and economic drag; Ukraine deals with war fatigue and resource constraints. Both could have incentive to pause hostilities temporarily.
Budanov’s comments signal realistic expectations:
Ukraine’s intelligence chief openly suggesting a 2025 ceasefire is possible adds credibility to the timeline. He may be aware of behind-the-scenes momentum not yet public.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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Why do you think you're right?
National Security and Social Stability: The Chinese government aims to prevent the spread of misinformation and maintain social order by controlling AI-generated content.
Ideological Alignment: AI models are expected to reflect the ideological stance of the Chinese Communist Party, ensuring that AI development supports state objectives.
Business Insider
Technological Self-Reliance: President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of self-sufficiency in AI development, advocating for accelerated regulatory frameworks to ensure safety and controllability.
Reuters
Why might you be wrong?
Innovation Balance: Overregulation could stifle innovation, prompting regulators to seek a balance between control and technological advancement.
WIRED
Global Competitiveness: Excessive restrictions might hinder China's position in the global AI race, especially against competitors like the United States.
Industry Feedback: The AI industry's response to regulations may lead to adjustments in policy to accommodate practical implementation challenges.
Conclusion