Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2025 04:13PM UTC
(10 months ago)
Feb 18, 2025 04:13PM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 37% | 6% | +31% | -1% |
| Armenia | 6% | 2% | +4% | +1% |
| Georgia | 25% | 3% | +22% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 9% | 1% | +8% | +1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 25, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59% | 17% | +42% | -20% |
| No | 41% | 83% | -42% | +20% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | 7% | +14% | +0% |
| No | 79% | 93% | -14% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | +0% | +0% |