Beyond the set date that the PLA announced it would invade/blockade/etc Taiwan (between 2027 and 2030), Chinese economic conditions are not ideal. Consumer trust in the economy is low after the troubles in the housing market, and demand is not rising at an appropriate state for the beginning of a war.
0.001539
Relative Brier Score
2
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1
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This forecast expired on Mar 6, 2025 05:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 6, 2025 to Aug 6, 2025
97%
No
Feb 6, 2025 to Aug 6, 2025
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Though a ceasefire is coming closer and Russia's government has openly admitted that bilateral talks with the US are underway, Russia is unlikely to take a deal that would remove Putin's power in Russia given Russia's large advantage going into negotiations. Additionally, There is not a large enough revolutionary force in Russia to push for such an outcome, nor a prominent enough opposition leader that would fill the power vacuum since the death of Navalny. Finally Putin's paranoia and political savvy is still sharp enough to protect his position.
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