Confirmed previous forecast
-0.013086
Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
82%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
18%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
(0%)
Yes
6%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
70%
(0%)
31-60 days
18%
(0%)
61-90 days
2%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
5%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
91%
(0%)
Yes
9%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
82%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
18%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Both sides are pretty desperate to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The ceasefire agreement may not last.
Files