Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2025 04:13AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 23, 2025 04:13AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 5% | 0% | +5% | -2% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 15% | 2% | +13% | -8% |
| Not before 2026 | 80% | 98% | -18% | +9% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2025 06:24AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 27, 2025 06:24AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 1% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 93% | 99% | -6% | +0% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2025 06:25AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 27, 2025 06:25AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 28% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 67% | 72% | -5% | +1% |