- Updated forecast after source correction... 1431 cases as of 9/2 is slightly higher than my previous source, with a weekly rate higher than before seen. I still think the curve flattening will keep us below 1500 through the end of September, but 1500+ confirmed cases seem more likely than previously thought
0.961404
Relative Brier Score
48
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
60%
(-10%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
35%
(+10%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Lags in reporting, outbreaks, back to school, etc. could easily boost numbers
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
70%
(+60%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
25%
(-19%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
5%
(-31%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
- Dramatic slowdown started over summer, with Texas outbreak declared over
- 1414 cases as of 9/2... current trend would keep count below 1500 by 9/30
- Already above 1349 cases, so no chance that is happening
- Even with a new outbreak, it is unlikely to reach 1650+ cases by 9/30
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Schools back in session could cause an outbreak to restart
- Outbreaks can pop up anywhere at any time, especially in places with low vaccination rates
- There could be a lag in case counting/reporting... a resolve before 9/30 could boost confirmed case counts
Files
You are very welcome.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 1, 2025 08:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Sep 1, 2025 to Mar 1, 2026
75%
No
Sep 1, 2025 to Mar 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
- There doesn't seem to be any tensions boiling over in any African country at this point
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Escalation can happen quickly
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
20%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Yes
67%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?