Horizon05

The short time window, US attention on several conflicts, maintained relations between US and South Korea with previous trade deal passing, and the lack of mention of this topic by other country further decreases the chances of this happening by September 30th. This includes recent discussions between the US and South Korea about operational command of forces in the event of a conflict with North Korea.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-us-see-progress-military-control-transfer-pyongyang-tensions-simmer-2025-09-24/

If these conditions continue, it seems very unlikely that the US will make this announcement within a week.

Slightly updating previous forecast given the short window left for a conflict breakout. If previous efforts to negotiate a cessation of hostilities holds, seems increasingly unlikely that a situation will result in 100 uniformed casualties and one death 

confirming previous forecast with updated reporting from CDC that the count has now reached 1514 cases.

Further increases and cases including in Utah and recent reporting of case in Chicago.

https://cookcountypublichealth.org/2025/09/16/cook-county-confirms-measles-case/

Given the trend increase from last week, with CDC now reporting 1,491 cases in the U.S., it seems increasingly likely now that the U.S. will surpass 1,500 and reach the third bin.

There is a possibility that the most recent named 'Gabrielle' could form into a hurricane by this coming weekend in the Atlantic, but the storm is currently struggling to further develop and as of now it is not even poised to make landfall based on its current path. Even if it did make landfall, it would be the first major hurricane to do so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/09/18/tropical-storm-gabrielle-hurricane-forecast/?utm_campaign=wp_the7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F44de562%2F68cd3570ade2b538187cf313%2F62fbb184eaa00b1e011bc579%2F60%2F108%2F68cd3570ade2b538187cf313

Given these developments and the quiet hurricane season that has been experienced so far, it seems extremely unlikely that two major hurricanes could make landfall in less than two weeks.