Slightly updating previous forecast given the short window left for a conflict breakout. If previous efforts to negotiate a cessation of hostilities holds, seems increasingly unlikely that a situation will result in 100 uniformed casualties and one death
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential conflict or tensions rising in Kashmir
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-1%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+2%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
confirming previous forecast with updated reporting from CDC that the count has now reached 1514 cases.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unless a significant outbreak occurs and the number of cases rises above 1650
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
1%
(-19%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
98%
(+18%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Further increases and cases including in Utah and recent reporting of case in Chicago.
https://cookcountypublichealth.org/2025/09/16/cook-county-confirms-measles-case/
Given the trend increase from last week, with CDC now reporting 1,491 cases in the U.S., it seems increasingly likely now that the U.S. will surpass 1,500 and reach the third bin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible that there could be a significant outbreak that would further increase the count to reach beyond 1,649, but it seems increasingly unlikely, if trends hold, that the U.S. will not reach 1,500 cases by the end of the month.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
There is a possibility that the most recent named 'Gabrielle' could form into a hurricane by this coming weekend in the Atlantic, but the storm is currently struggling to further develop and as of now it is not even poised to make landfall based on its current path. Even if it did make landfall, it would be the first major hurricane to do so.
Given these developments and the quiet hurricane season that has been experienced so far, it seems extremely unlikely that two major hurricanes could make landfall in less than two weeks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If some kind of black swan significant event occurs that results in the creation of two major hurricanes.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The short time window, US attention on several conflicts, maintained relations between US and South Korea with previous trade deal passing, and the lack of mention of this topic by other country further decreases the chances of this happening by September 30th. This includes recent discussions between the US and South Korea about operational command of forces in the event of a conflict with North Korea.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-us-see-progress-military-control-transfer-pyongyang-tensions-simmer-2025-09-24/
If these conditions continue, it seems very unlikely that the US will make this announcement within a week.
Why might you be wrong?
Tensions suddenly rising between the two countries