Recent quarters are far below the bar
0.304135
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Weather or outages elsewhere
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many Western governments remain wary of Huawei due to security concerns
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Huawer could surprise and move faster than expected, especially if regularoty pressure becomes more acute.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is a disagreement about how strict regulation should be versus preserving innovation. Regulation could get blocked or heavily compromised.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Public pressure and state-level activity. Many states are discussing AI-related laws, and there's concern about a patchwork of state regulations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Active diplomatic channels (24th round). Both delegations issued consensus points and working-level mechanisms.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Patrol encounter or accidental escalation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
70%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
25%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
4%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
CDC's official cumulative was 1,454 as of Sept 9
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Late september backfills could add more than expected
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Less than or equal to 1
1%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
As of Sep 11, the Atlantic has been quiet.
NOAA/CSU still call for an above-normal season overall, but that doesn't guarantee a major U.S. landfall before Sep 30.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Major hurricanes can spin up and reach land quickly
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Regional polarization and rivalries persist (Morocco and Algeria)
Why might you be wrong?
External sponsorship can accelerate deals