RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	0.0
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.02443
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.000216
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.000034
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.000817
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?	-0.014802
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?	0.280333
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	-0.004842
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	0.014864
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	0.003144
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	0.000441

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