Putin has a stronghold on power in Russia. The condensed timeframe would imply that there is a massive upheaval internally. Based on the events with Prigozhin it seems unlikely he will be challenged in a way he cannot overcome. The low chance that he is not president is based more on the likelihood that he has a health issue.
0.001483
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Opposition groups do exist in Russia. If they can gain more attention or revert to more extreme actions then things could escalate quickly.
Files
"he had the means, the weapons, and the deployment to threaten Putin's continuity"
So much for "without a doubt" for all those things. It's a pure miracle he's been killed for a mutiny then.
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Why do you think you're right?
Initially there will be a desire and effort by both sides to maintain the agreement. As time moves on Putin will get impatient and most likely re-engage
Why might you be wrong?
The biggest factor will be the terms and monitoring of the Russian side. Russia will most likely want greater gains so they will favor further action. However, they will want to give the appearance that Ukraine violated the terms