RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	47%	-18%	+0%
No	71%	53%	+18%	+0%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	92%	56%	+36%	-2%
No	8%	44%	-36%	+2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	100%	-1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	99%	+0%	+1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2027	Mar 4, 2026	5%	-4%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2027	Mar 4, 2026	95%	+4%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	-1%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+1%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:35PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	46%	-31%	-1%
No	85%	54%	+31%	+1%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:35PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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