Confirmed previous forecast
0.114109
Relative Brier Score
89
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 8 | 97 | 89 | 97 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
63%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(0%)
Yes
8%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
(0%)
Yes
71%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Dec 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.