It's happening
-0.009931
Relative Brier Score
87
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 20 | 30 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| Comments | 9 | 18 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Questions Forecasted | 18 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
U.S. Entity
63%
Non-U.S. Entity
Why might you be wrong?
What do I know?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
nope
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
nuh uh
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nah
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-94%)
Yes
98%
(+94%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
blorg
Files
Why might you be wrong?
yup
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+14%)
Yes
4%
(-14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Doesn't seem likely now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
C'mon EU
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Conference report
Why might you be wrong?
austerity