At this point, I think between the forced 15-hour read of the entire OBBB, plus the subsequent Senate vote-a-rama, plus time required in the House, I think it is no longer feasible for the House to achieve final passage of the OBBB by midnight on June 30 (tomorrow).
0.693829
Relative Brier Score
27
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jun 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-10%)
Yes
98%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There remains a small chance the bill could get rushed through the House by midnight tomorrow; will watch tomorrow's proceedings closely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing chance of this happening due to (1) apparent diminishment of the past flare-up and (2) more time elapsed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Again, tensions are substantial and this could flare back up.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-13%)
Yes
88%
(+13%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm lowering the chance of this passing by Monday night (July 31) as we approach the deadline with more problems and controversies with the OBBB ongoing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
That said, I do think there is a real chance the bill does pass by Monday night. President Trump is apparently putting his full weight on members of Congress to get a bill done in order to have a signing ceremony on July 4 (was mentioned this morning on the streaming show 2Way, with Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, and Dan Turrentine). Further, the Senate and House, according to Politico, reportedly do have a schedule to get the bill passed on Monday night. Link is: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/27/congress/trump-megabill-july-4-senate-house-vote-00429172. Key quote: "If the Senate does vote Saturday to proceed, expect Democrats to use the bulk of their 10 hours of debate time, while Republicans forfeit most of theirs. Then comes the main event — vote-a-rama — which would set up likely final passage for sometime Sunday.
That starts the timer for the House. GOP leaders there have pledged to give members 48 hours’ notice of a vote — and they have already advised the earliest that voting could happen is Monday evening. Republicans will have to adopt a rule before moving to debate and final passage."
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-12%)
Yes
92%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Am lowering my forecast in response to the May data, as noted by unamicast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be an unforeseen surge in registrations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(-7%)
Yes
72%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering my forecast a bit as Gallup's polling numbers are running a bit under the polling average (I'm using Nate Silver's, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin ) which currently is right at 45.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before, President Trump to date has a fairly high polling floor and so far, at least, the Iran - Israel / nuclear program bombing has "ended" with a ceasefire. Individual polls (in this case we're using Gallup are also very volatile) - check on Nate Silver's site for how current polls are all over the map.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The referenced news articles have been met with official denials, which strongly suggests at least that the "truth has changed." See for example, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5316820-pentagon-denies-us-withdrawing-troops-south-korea/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
News articles still reference the proposed withdrawal as an option still being considered, so it could come back into play.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As noted, a ceasefire has been holding and negotiations ongoing, including with the personal involvement of President Trump.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There appear to be growing tensions again, notably with threats over the Indus Water Treaty. E.g., https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/pakistan-will-go-war-seize-all-six-rivers-bilawal-bhutto-threatens-india-as-amit-shah-vows-to-starve-pak-of-water/3888727/ and https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/22/india-says-it-will-never-restore-indus-waters-treaty-with-pakistan
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating as Politico is now reporting that the earliest the House will vote on the reconciliation bill - assuming Senate passage in a form that doesn't require a Conference Committee - is Wednesday morning. Link: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/30/congress/thune-senate-megabill-votearama-senate-vote-00432303
Why might you be wrong?