Confirmed previous forecast
0.00042
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 7, 2025 01:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
May 7, 2025 to Nov 7, 2025
98%
No
May 7, 2025 to Nov 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely to happen due to the lack of any specific public or insider information on the topic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is always a chance for such events as there is no sufficient information about Chinese internal political tendencees.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The probability of such intervention is low due to the lack of similar precedent and no active preparation for such operations, military deployment requires several months in pre-phase, so the forecast if more of whether the deployment will be announced by mid October
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Military activities are extremely unpredictable especially if it least one of the opponents in a non democratic country, several different provocations can be made that will shift the position of european leaders
Files