Won't happen until chip manufacturing gets more spread out, US backs it too strongly and China knows
0.000379
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 16, 2025 05:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
98%
No
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump could fuck it up
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
We're in the stage of AI now where the rapid improvement in it's technology is over, and hence the excitement behind it. We are now in the stage where its a competition of who can make the best use of AI, and not who can make the best AI. Due to the natural limitations of AI, it's growth and inherent value related to that growth is tapering.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
What could change the course back to the positive side is a refocus on AI by governments, but it seems like we are locked into trade wars for a little bit.
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Why do you think you're right?
5 years is a long time in this age. There's lots of technology to be developed, wars to fight, mistakes to happen, and virtually an entire trump presidency left to go, which is already heating up.
Why might you be wrong?
I hope I'm wrong