Confirmed previous forecast
0.217332
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 18, 2025 02:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-16%)
Yes
May 18, 2025 to Nov 18, 2025
99%
(+16%)
No
May 18, 2025 to Nov 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Korea depends economically on China and Russia. There is not point for Korea to escalate at this stage given that it will not make any difference for their situation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
North Korean leadership is unpredictable, and situation is very flued globally. So just to bring itself to the map they may decide to create this event out of the blue.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
29%
(+10%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
39%
(+20%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
31%
(+4%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
1%
(-34%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
There is growing pressure on Russia to agree but there is also huge resistance give amount of resources which have been invested into the war. So if the ceasefire is nor reach withing 2025, it would be hard to achieve it later
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know current situation in Russian economy and military. So if you follow Russian narrative Russia could sustain the war long time.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 18, 2025 02:16AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
May 18, 2025 to Nov 18, 2025
75%
(0%)
No
May 18, 2025 to Nov 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Apr 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
11%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
56%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
12%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Venezuela will be under massive sanctions from US and regime change might happen in 2025
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Guyana might decide to make a deal with Venezuela.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-20%)
Yes
60%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The completion in GPU sector is heating up, also AI is becoming strategic industry which is attracting a lot of geopolitical controversies and push backs.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Company has massive advantage vs competition. So far financials are exceptional, and momentum is very strong
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia has very strong growth momentum and profitability. There is strong dominance in terms of GPU production. Technology is way ahead of competition.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Chinese market is significant part of the sales and there is significant competition from new entries into the market. Nvidia has huge lead, but the market is too attractive to leave it only for one player. China might impose sanctions on the company to limit its ability to dominate the market long term.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 17, 2025 02:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
Yes
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
83%
No
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Probability is low but quite significant given tension in the Korean peninsula
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China plays important role as controller and arbitrageur in the region, and it has no benefits from this happening
Files