Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 12 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Comments | 3 | 3 | 111 | 111 | 111 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-20%)
Yes
90%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time is running out, but it's still not impossible
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
53%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
21%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-30%)
Yes
70%
(+30%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time decay is the only motivator I have
Files