Confirmed previous forecast
1.578855
Relative Brier Score
83
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
17%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
33%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
33%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
17%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
22%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
10%
(-23%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
90%
(+23%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Updated to reflect the passage of time. The employment rate has exceeded 70% since 2023, and is only forecasted to grow..
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected economic turmoil, perhaps due to shocks such as changes in tariff policy.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2025 05:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Oct 3, 2025 to Apr 3, 2026
99%
No
Oct 3, 2025 to Apr 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Invasion seems unlikely based on news reports that the target date for the PLA to have such a capability is 2027. An attack seems unlikely unless it is a prelude to an invasion. A blockade is a possibility, but it seems to be a remote one at this time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The stated target date of 2027 for a capability to invade Taiwan could be an exercise in deception. Chine may choose to blockade, attack, or invade if the US is "distracted" by a contingency in the Middle East or Europe.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updated to reflect the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surprises emanating out of the White House are common. There could be an unanticipated shift in policy towards troop deployments in general, and in South Korea in particular.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Recent (13 October 2025) developments in the Middle East point to the possibility of this happening with one or more of the countries listed, however there is a great deal of residual uncertainty at this point.
Why might you be wrong?
I may be overly optimistic. The potential deal to end the war in Gaza may fall through, and if the deal falls through it is hard to see any of the listed countries choosing to sign an agreement with Israel.