Confirmed previous forecast
0.581063
Relative Brier Score
61
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
95%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
4%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Less than or equal to 9%
0%
(-3%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
30%
(-30%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
70%
(+35%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
I am reversing course on this. Having just come back from Germany and spoken with a number of Germany friends, Russia's air incursions into Poland, Estonia, Denmark, and Norway has caused a lot of concern among German citizens on the center right and center left. I think this will likely inch public opinion into the 30%-39% bracket.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The rise of the AfD and the pro Russia political movements in Germany is concerning. This could possibly make Germany see Russia as less threatening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-3%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
There have been no category 3 hurricanes or higher to make landfall in the US this year according to NOAA and it is extremely unlikely that two would hit in the next four days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is technically possible that two category three storms could hit the US in 4 days but the probability is so low it is a statistical anomaly at best.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Same as before
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-10%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
99%
(+9%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
As of 23 September there are 1514 confirmed cases of measles. Based on current infection rates, it is unlikely that there will be enough new cases in the next 5 days to break into the 1650 - 1799 category.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
20%
(-78%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
80%
(+78%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
The rate of new measles infections has risen in the last two weeks of August and the first three weeks of September leading to more new infections and increasing the total number of infections to 1491 as of today. With two more weeks to go in the reporting period of this question, it is increasingly likely that the rate of newly reported measles infections will surpass 1500 by 30 Sep
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible that rates of infection could dip in the final week of September. As the rate of infection is "on the bubble" between the categories of 1350 - 1499 and 1500 - 1649, the total number of infections will fall somewhere at the extreme high end of the former category or the extreme low end of the latter category.
Files
It is possible that rates of infection could dip in the final week of September
Please notice that we have already +10 cases from CDC's latest (1491) in Utah alone since Friday: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/200297 ; and the CNN tracker (which has proved to be a good enough proxy, updated daily) is already at 1501. Plus - yes, rates of newly reported cases can indeed dip from +30 that they have been in the recent weeks, but how probable is it that they will fail to give 9 more cases in the remaining 2 weeks? Is this probability really as high as 10%?
Just sayin'...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
10%
(-10%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
90%
(+10%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Selected incorrect % the first time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Same as before
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before