It's the day of and no announcement yet, so I'm shift my forecast downward.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything is possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-34%)
Less than or equal to 1349
2%
(-12%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
98%
(+93%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-8%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-39%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
With 2 weeks to go before the question resolves, we are at 1491 cases. There have been around 20 cases reported per week for the past few weeks, with at least double-digit cases reported each week. It appears highly likely that this question will resolve with just over 1500 cases reported.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible, although unlikely, that fewer than 9 cases will be reported in the next two years. It is also possible but unlikely that more than 159 cases will be reported in that time frame.
Files
It is possible, although unlikely, that fewer than 9 cases will be reported in the next two [weeks]
We have already +10 from CDC's latest in Utah alone: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/200297
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-6%)
Yes
99%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The question will resolve soon, and I have not seen reports of a re-escalation of tensions. It is unlikely that a conflict will happen in the coming days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A conflict, though unlikely, is possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-25%)
Yes
99%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Most of the reporting on the potential for a troop withdraw came in May of this year. Several months have passed and we are now days from the question resolution with no new reports of a troop withdraw being planned. It seems highly unlike that this question will resolve "yes".
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It remains possible that the administration will decide to make the move to withdraw troops in advance of the fiscal year ending.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There has not yet been a reported confrontation (from what I can tell), and the question resolves in a matter of days. A confrontation is technically possible, but I would put the likelihood at less than 0.5%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The probability of a confrontation is non-zero, although it was not an option for me to put something like "0.1%" as my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+7%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-7%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
It is September 19 and there have been no major storms to make landfall in the continental US so far this season (and there are currently no active systems projected to do so). At this stage, it is more or less physically impossible for multiple storms to manifest, strengthen to major status, and make landfall by September 30.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be misinterpreting the question or misreading the data.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jun 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
Why do you think you're right?
Over 1500 cases have been reported, but it is very very unlikely at this stage that 1650 or more will be reported.
Why might you be wrong?
Anything is possible.