I’m making this forecast after the July 1 note, so the only question is whether Spain will fall in line. I expect it will be pressured to do so, with the potential of expanding what counts in the 5%.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I need to find historical cases of how often countries get persuaded to eventually go along with nato targets for the sake of unity. Absent that I don’t have a lot of basis to assign the percentage I did.
Files
I’m perusing …. If you want to be high on “Yes” all will agree, then you have forecast correctly. ☺️
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As of June 27 the highest rating was 47% and the lowest is the current at 40%. Ratings have almost monotonically decreased, with the exception of March April May where ratings went from 43 to 44 and then back to 43.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Iran strikes may be causing some blips in approval. See for instance https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-iran-bombing-2091578. If the Iran strikes end up proving to be a success, say leading to a nuclear deal and a lasting peace with Israel, I may expect approval ratings to increase. But for now, I assess that a five-point increase would be unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I started by across polls, such as compiled by NYTimes. These polls incorporate ranked choice voting. The polls vary. I've taken the mode of the polls, and get Cuomo winning at about 55%. But that number is whether he wins at all, while this question specifies "five rounds". Looking more carefully at individual poll results when available, few show Cuomo winning in five rounds.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't have a sense of how the polls may be biased. I am also mindful that there is a movement to tell voters "don't rank Cuomo at all" which would depress his chances of winning. But I don't have a sense of how well that messaging is working.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given the sparsity of data, a strictly frequentist approach doesn't seem to work. Arguably there have been no incidents since 2020-2021, in part because of work to de-escalate the situation after the fatal incidents then.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not followed internal China or India politics and policies, so would be unaware of changes by one or the other country that could increase the chance of conflict.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Revising my forecast. I had not appreciated that Spain and NATO had agreed on an exemption. Previously I thought the Spain might be persuaded to fall in line. But it looks like NATO won't be applying actual pressure on Spain to do so, beyond public comments about Spain spending being insufficient.
https://apnews.com/article/nato-spain-trump-defense-spending-8b554694c18511a3b835e44a15042694
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/magazine/mark-rutte-interview.html
Why might you be wrong?