Looking at past data, spikes in new car registrations come in the later half of the year. BEV shares fell 1% to 16% in May of 2025. Last year saw a total increase of around 3.2% over the entire year, meaning there would have to be an increase greater than the entirety of 2024 in June in order to push the total above 20%. There's also still uncertainty around Tesla sales due to Musk's political activities, and Tesla accounts for over 10% of the BEV pool in the EU.
0.054942
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There have been large spikes in the earlier parts of the year in the past (2020 and 2023). Tesla sales are rebounding a bit (although they don't account for a large enough percentage of the pool to make a major difference when closing this large of a gap)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
Yes
59%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There has been some some serious dissent from Republicans such as Senator Tillis. In the long-term something will get passed, but this bills cuts to Medicaid are a hard sell. There are at least two Senators with serious concerns about the Medicaid cuts, and the Republicans only have a 53-47 advantage in seats.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
So far, Republicans in Congress have largely towed the line for President Trump. There is a chance they will continue to do so, or that changes may be put in place to secure the cooperation of Tillis as well. Additionally, with such slim margins, any defection from the Democrat's line would greatly swing things
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Less than or equal to 1349
33%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
23%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
13%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
6%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Reasons to think numbers will continue to increase but not at the current rate they have: Summer time means most children and adults who work with them are not in school settings, schools are a major source of outbreaks as there are large quantities of people in confined spaces. Also, RKJ backtracked a bit on his anti-vaccine stance for measles, so perhaps that shows increased messaging encouraging both vaccines and awareness
Files
Why might you be wrong?
RKJ then turned around and got rid of the vaccine specialists in CDC, this could indicate more anti-vaccine and misinformation efforts. There also seems to be a spike in measles in August of previous years, so, with a taper in the colder months, so even accounting for less children in school for most of the summer (this is not my area but it seems like warm weather is correlated with higher cases as well?), there is still time for another round of outbreaks in schools while there is warm weather. Furthermore, some schools are year round, it's possible my theory about less outbreaks due to summer breaks is completely wrong
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
89%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Violent conflict between China and India occurs pretty rarely, lethal conflict even more so. There were deaths recently, but in the past when deaths have occurred they have typically been one-offs. This would lead me to think somewhat of an increase in chance but still close to the base rate. Brought up a bit more by the fact that things are unstable geopolitically and China has upped their aggression in this environment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things are extremely unstable at the moment, China could be looking to make a statement or gauge the international response to aggression, particularly with the US just starting the Trump administration.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
President Trumps approval ratings have been in steady decline across most of the year and in particular the last two months. Events in Iran, the crackdown on U.S. protesters using U.S. military, potential Medicaid cuts breaking ties with U.S. Senators, acts of political violence against Democratic politicians, and the ways in which ICE and birthright citizenship has been weaponized against U.S. Citizens, and the fallout with Elon Musk are all events that have eroded a support base.
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible the U.S. could go to war or an extreme event could occur, in such a way that the President immediately gains backing. We saw this with President Bush Jr. following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. There could be some type of outlier event that drives support.