Per the NYT I believe this has been resolved, "Five days of resumed fighting this week has killed at least 20 people and displaced more than half a million."
0.004316
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New Prediction
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Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+10%)
Yes
0%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
If the NYT is wrong!
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+60%)
Yes
10%
(-60%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I regret my earlier confidence that neither side wanted escalation; now it feels like a spiral that is going to get worse before it gets better.
Also wondering if this has already been resolved? According to the NYT today, "Five days of resumed fighting this week has killed at least 20 people and displaced more than half a million." ???
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Why might you be wrong?
If the NYT report is erroneous and the threshold of 20 hasn't already been reached, it's certainly possible for hostilities to quiet for 6 weeks. Fatalities are not daily but coming in discrete events
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+25%)
Yes
70%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Greatly increasing probability with yesterday's Thai strike on Cambodia, killing 5, in response to a Thai soldier dying in a skirmish (for a total of 6 deaths). This obviously makes it much more likely that more such incidents may occur, and raises questions about troop discipline and desire for peace
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Why might you be wrong?
Still considering this less than likely as both leaders still encouraging restraint, and both countries still have incentives (mainly economic) to avoid conflict
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing likelihood with the passage of more time and lack of movement / news
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Why might you be wrong?
China still expansion-minded I would imagine, and US continues to shrink from international interests
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Less than 62%
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
2%
(-45%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
98%
(+50%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
When I first forecasted long ago it seemed like it was going to be close to 70; with passage of time numbers are clearly leaning >70 rather than <70
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Why might you be wrong?
Still some time and some countries don't have data yet for later months
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Can't say I've read everything but it seems like Egypt's economy has stabilized. I think the international community also has a stake in keeping Egypt stable lest it destabilize the fragile Gaza ceasefire
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Why might you be wrong?
Well their economy still stinks so a total collapse can't be ruled out
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Why do you think you're right?
In addition to some time having passed since my initial forecast, mainly reducing the probability as previously I didn't fully appreciate that the question meant truly excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel. I had misread the question to mean "at least 3 MENA states other than Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel," and not that those 4 countries could not be involved. As others have pointed out, those states tend to drive geopolitical developments in the region, so it would be unlikely for any group of 3 countries to put together a security agreement without any of those 4 countries.
Why might you be wrong?
I could see an agreement specifically ABOUT Israel, even if Israel isn't involved, including the bordering countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, or other nearby countries).