Confirmed previous forecast
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0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
91%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-2%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
So far in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been no major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) that have made landfall in the continental United States.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there is a major hurricane
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 600
0%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
0%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
9%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
91%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
The average number of incidents in the last seven months are 704. I expect this trend to continue for August.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the underlying conditions change.
Files
August presents a change in weather pattern - HOT! Will the heat have any affect on behavior in the region? Will infighting among cartels increase due to more drug seizures at the border?
I don't know the answer to these questions - but thinking outside of the box what may have an influence in the region, outside of the common reporting trends of the previous months.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I update my forecast based on the most recent numbers published by CDC. As of September 16, 2025, a total of 1,491 confirmed measles cases reported in the United States.
Why might you be wrong?
If the weekly cases less than 3.