Confirmed previous forecast
0.38473
Relative Brier Score
52
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 54 | 2 | 54 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 67 | 1 | 67 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
92%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm following the crowd here. Aside from the drop in the crowd forecast, I haven't really seen any new information that would cause me to update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-15%)
Yes
45%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updated based on the recent data and the drop in the crowd forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See the explanation in my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As others have pointed out, it needs to average about 2.8 percent annual growth to resolve yes. This is below historical averages. However, in the past year we only grew 1.8 percent.
The base rate is tricky. If I look at all months since 1987 and calculate how many months saw an increase of at least 5.6 percent any time in the following two years, I get a baserate of 65%. But almost all of the months where that question resolved "no" were during the financial crisis or before 2000, when the housing market was very different from today. If I only look at months post 2012 and do the same exercise, I get a baserate of 97%.
Recent policy changes push in different directions. CBO projects a large decrease in US population growth in 2025 and 2026, which could lead to a decrease in demand for housing: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390. At the same time, labor shortages and increased tariffs could increase construction costs and reduce supply.
Given the slow growth rate in the past year, I'll go with 70%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I didn't look into the possible implications of future interest rate changes. I also think that a deeper dive into the impacts of reduced population growth could suggest that that is an important potential driver of reduced price growth.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I recalculated the baserates based on updated data. For this to resolve "yes", the index has to increase by at least 6.4 percent at any point in the next 22 months. Since the 1987 (the first year that the index is available), this has occurred in 59.4% of all months. As I mentioned in the previous forecast, most months in which this did not occur are during the financial crisis or prior to 2000. If we limit the sample to months after January 2012, then the base rate rises to 90%.
I'll put my forecast closer to the lower of the two baserates, since price growth in recent months has been slow and the crowd forecast is pretty low (if I wasn't deferring to the crowd, I would probably make my forecast 75%).
It seems plausible that we will have significant interest rate cuts prior to July 2027, which would put upward pressure on housing prices. I hadn't considered this in my previous forecast. This could counteract the impact of lower population growth on prices.
Why might you be wrong?
I wonder if there will be enough cuts to the interest rate in this time period to influence the lock-in effect. If rates drop, more existing homeowners are willing to buy and therefore willing to sell. This increase in liquidity lowers prices. From the Philadelphia Fed:
Although other researchers cited in the report minimize the effect:
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Economy/Articles/economic-insights/2025/q3/eiq325-how-mortgage-lock-in-affects-the-price-of-housing.pdf