Trump is anti-Ukraine and Europe is closer to the battle lines.
-0.04285
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
26%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
37%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is volatile and Europe is poorer than the US.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Less than $350 million
19%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
15%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
23%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
32%
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Because I'm smart
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because I could be dumb
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NATO lacks a clear enforcement mechanisms to encourage Spain to comply with the 5% agreement. With Spain showing that it's possible to resist, other NATO members will surely follow suit in rejecting the 5% proposal in practice, even if they agreed to it in theory at the NATO summit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump takes a significant personal interest in compelling Spain to meet its spending target, he might be able to gather enough support from other allies to force compliance. But this seems unlikely.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The flow of narcotics is an administration priority that has tangible targets and implications for the DHS (which just received a funding bump) on the ground. Summer months tend to coincide with higher levels of crime. Illicit drug patterns likely won't break this trend.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Investments into counter-narcotics operations have diminishing marginal returns: $1 spent on drug seizures will gradually be less and less effective as measured by lbs of drugs seized, because the easiest sources to seize will be depleted after the first few months of efforts. It's also possible that CPB's increased enforcement activity will deter drug networks from transporting products through the US southern border.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The EU may impose economic sanctions in pursuit of climate policy goals; the Trump Administration may impose economic sanctions because they are his favored tool of statecraft. With an oil glut impending, Trump will panic and seek to blame the crisis on another entity.
Why might you be wrong?
The oil glut will lead to lower prices, which Trump is happy about. But prices below $50/barrel are bad for shale gas producers, so the situation is delicate. In any case, the imposition of tariffs or trade sanctions on MENA oil producers is unsound economic policy.