Japan, South Korea, the US, and Germany are safe bets against recognition of the Palestinian state given their especially strong ties to the Israeli state.
-0.04285
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
9%
18
32%
17
59%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We could see a dramatic, unexpected turn from Germany or South Korea in addition to Italy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
26%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
37%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
19%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
23%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
32%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The EU may impose economic sanctions in pursuit of climate policy goals; the Trump Administration may impose economic sanctions because they are his favored tool of statecraft. With an oil glut impending, Trump will panic and seek to blame the crisis on another entity.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The oil glut will lead to lower prices, which Trump is happy about. But prices below $50/barrel are bad for shale gas producers, so the situation is delicate. In any case, the imposition of tariffs or trade sanctions on MENA oil producers is unsound economic policy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
26%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
37%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Trump is anti-Ukraine and Europe is closer to the battle lines.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is volatile and Europe is poorer than the US.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The cyber domain will be the venue of choice for 2026 gray zone operations. A growing percentage of cyber activities rely on AI. Cyber capabilities were demonstrated in the U.S. abduction of Maduro, and will surely be countered by U.S. adversaries against CONUS or an allied country at the next available opportunity.
Why might you be wrong?
Attribution is difficult in the cyber context. Reporting may not credibly mention AI.