Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000135
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
2%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
9%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
89%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Estonia
12%
(0%)
Latvia
12%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Trump administration is placing new trade restrictions frequently, and it is unlikely that this trend will stop.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A trade agreement could be reached with China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
2%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
9%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
89%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has no interest in ending the war without concessions that Ukraine is not yet willing to give.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Increased American pressure on Russia could bring Putin to the negotiating table.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Iran does not seem to have an interest in peace deals after the US decision to enter the war. There is not much Iranian sentiment to work with the West after the 12 day war. August 1st is simply too soon for things to change this drastically.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran could be desperate to prevent additional strikes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-28%)
Estonia
12%
(-28%)
Latvia
12%
(-28%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
NATO has not deteriorated under Trump as much as many Baltic security experts anticipated, and Trump has expressed a renewed willingness to support Ukrainian security.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin clearly wants to reintegrate the Baltics into Russia, and he could be emboldened by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Files